WC 2026 Forecaster — Bayesian World Cup Simulator

WC 2026 Forecaster is an interactive World Cup prediction dashboard that simulates the 2026 tournament 50,000 times to estimate champion probabilities, group-stage outcomes, knockout paths, matchups, and Golden Boot scenarios. Instead of showing a single prediction, the app gives users calibrated probability distributions so they can explore uncertainty across the entire tournament.The forecasting engine uses a Bayesian Dixon-Coles football model fitted on international match history, with time-decay weighting, tournament importance, Elo-style team strength, and squad-quality priors. A Monte Carlo simulation layer then plays out the full tournament thousands of times, including group standings, knockout brackets, extra time, penalties, and alternate tournament paths.

Interactive Forecasting Views

The dashboard includes dedicated views for deeper tournament analysis, including Golden Boot predictions and head-to-head matchup forecasting. These views let users move beyond champion odds and inspect player-level scoring projections, expected scores, win/draw/loss probabilities, and team outlooks.

The Golden Boot view estimates expected tournament goals for individual players by combining each player’s recent national-team scoring share with their team’s projected goals per match and expected number of games played. This connects player-level scoring potential directly to the tournament simulation instead of treating top scorer odds as a separate static ranking.

The matchup predictor lets users select any two teams and compare win, draw, and loss probabilities at a neutral venue. It also shows expected score, most likely scoreline, favorite, and each team’s broader tournament outlook, making the model useful for both single-match analysis and full-tournament exploration.

Technical Highlights

• 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full 2026 World Cup tournament
• Bayesian Dixon-Coles model for football scoreline prediction
• Champion odds, group qualification probabilities, bracket paths, and matchup forecasts
• Golden Boot predictions based on player goal share, team xG, and simulated games played
• Historical international match data with time-decay and tournament-importance weighting
• Elo ratings and squad-strength priors to estimate modern team quality
• Knockout-stage simulation with extra time and penalty shootout logic
• Backtesting and calibration against previous World Cup tournaments
• Interactive dashboard for exploring favorites, teams, brackets, Golden Boot odds, and alternate outcomes

Stack

• Modeling: Bayesian statistics, Dixon-Coles model, Poisson score modeling
• Simulation: Monte Carlo tournament rollouts, bracket simulation, probability aggregation
• Data: International match results, Elo ratings, squad-strength signals
• Analytics: Backtesting, calibration, team-strength estimation, uncertainty modeling
• Product: Interactive forecasting dashboard, technical methodology docs, live web deployment

Links

• Live App: https://wc2026.nader.info
• Technical Docs: https://wc2026.nader.info/docs